Will global ocean freight continue to rise in 2022?
Writer： Hengfeng you electric Time：2021-12-03 views：times
Will global ocean freight continue to rise in 2022?
In 2021, the sea freight soared, the wharf was blocked, one box was hard to find, and the profits of shipping companies soared, which has become a hot search term for major media all the way around the world. In the past year and a half, relevant policies have been issued all over the world, including the strong intervention of the U.S. government. Why hasn't it been improved? Will this phenomenon be alleviated in 2022? Will shipping prices remain high?
Today, let Martin, chief economic analyst of hengfengyou electric, take you to know:
According to the data of the General Administration of Customs of China, in the first 10 months of 2021, China's exports reached 17.49 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.5% and 25% over the same period in 2019. More than 96% of the world's dry freight containers and 100% of temperature controlled containers are produced in China. At present, manufacturing enterprises are increasing production, but the number of enterprises engaged in container production is still small, which disrupts the rhythm of container production.
The port is congested and the ship capacity is tight, which makes it difficult to obtain the first cabin. "One container is hard to find" continues, mainly due to the lack of empty containers. "The export of heavy containers on China's international routes is much larger than the import of heavy containers. In order to maintain the balance of containers, it is necessary to transfer 3 million empty containers by sea every month. At the same time, it is necessary to realize the balance of containers through domestic container manufacturing. Since the second half of last year, the demand for sea transportation has increased rapidly, and the growth rate reached 14% in the fourth quarter of last year. However, due to the poor circulation of containers abroad and the slowdown in the callback of empty containers by sea, it is difficult As a result, there was a shortage of empty containers. At the most serious time, the shortage of empty containers imported by Sea reached 2 million TEUs, resulting in "it is difficult to find one box". On the other hand, there is a lack of container space. "As a result of the increase in the imbalance of freight demand and port congestion, the ship operation efficiency has decreased, and the shortage of ship capacity has become prominent. In particular, the" one cabin is difficult to find "in the spot market, which has promoted the sharp rise of container liner freight rates. At present, the global impact is still continuing, the situation of port congestion and low ship turnover efficiency is difficult to be reversed for a time, and a large number of new ships are built At present, the ship can not be put into use, leading to the continuous rise of shipping prices. "
Will global freight rates drop in 2022?
Although the market demand for dry bulk goods continued to be strong in the past third quarters, COVID-19's control measures and the cold winter this year caused the ship's tension and the freight rate soared again. As the coal transportation in the Pacific area continued to be stable and the investment of the infrastructure increased substantially, the volume of steel shipments increased, which led to the increase of freight charges in the bulk carrier market. It is entirely possible for Martin, chief economic analyst of Youdian electric, to reduce freight in 2022, but it is impossible to return to the level before the epidemic.
It is optimistic that after the Spring Festival in 2022, the shipping pressure will be relieved and the price will be loosened. The shipping price will only fluctuate horizontally in 2022, and there is no possibility of a significant decline. From a macroeconomic point of view, the price decline is an inevitable phenomenon, because the huge profits of shipping companies will not last for too long.
