Analysis on development status and future trend of China's transformer industry in 2021
Writer： Hengfeng you electric Time：2023-04-14 views：times
Power transformers began to realize commercial operation all over the world in the 1980s. They were successfully manufactured by Westinghouse Electric Company of Pennsylvania in 1886 and successfully mass produced to the public. According to the analysis and summary of Jack, marketing director of hengfengyou electric, China's transformer industry has experienced four development periods from the germination of the 1950s to the present:
1. 1950s: imitating the Soviet Union, the transformer industry has a backward foundation, and the product stability and technical performance are not high
2. 1990s: China developed S9 series products, and the overall loss decreased significantly, but it was equivalent to the level of Europe and the United States in the 1940s
3. At the beginning of the 21st century, S11 series transformers were launched, and the loss was further reduced, but there was still a certain gap with developed countries
4. Now: in June 2021, China announced the implementation of the new transformer loss standard. China's transformer manufacturing technology and level ranked first in the world and became the world's top transformer manufacturing country.
Upstream enterprises in the transformer industry are mainly raw material suppliers, providing non-ferrous metal raw materials such as silicon steel sheet, copper and aluminum; The midstream is the transformer industry, providing customized transformer product design, manufacturing, assembly, commissioning and after-sales service for downstream enterprises; Downstream application industries are mainly power plants, State Grid, petrochemical industry, metallurgy, railway transportation, urban construction and other fields. Each subdivided industry presents different market demand characteristics.
China transformer industry chain
二、 Development status of transformer industry
With the continuous development of China's economy, power consumption continues to rise. In 2020, the power consumption of China's whole society will rise to 7.51 trillion kwh. The rise of power consumption puts forward higher requirements for the power grid, and the demand for transformers is also growing. According to the data, the output of China's transformers has reached 17.36 billion KVA in 2020, which has declined compared with that in 2019, mainly due to the impact of COVID-19 worldwide.
From the perspective that the sales revenue of transformers of Chinese transformer enterprises accounts for the total sales revenue of transformers, in China's power transformer industry, large-scale, intensive and large group backbone enterprises such as TBEA, China West Power and baobian occupy nearly 10% of the market share, and the market concentration is low. Among them, TBEA has a market share of 4.09%, in a leading position, with an annual output value of more than 10 billion.
三、 Export analysis of transformer industry
At present, China has developed involute iron core transformer and amorphous alloy iron core power transformer, with single transformer capacity of 1500 MVA and voltage level of up to 1100 kV. It has become the world's top voltage manufacturer, which not only meets the needs of the Chinese market, but also exports to more than 50 countries and regions around the world. At present, as a representative export enterprise of power distribution transformer, "hengfengyou electric "Through China's one belt, one road has been successfully exported to more than 50 countries, including Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, Libya, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Uganda, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Garner, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Vietnam, Nepal, Bangladesh and Indonesia. Provide global users with the best electrical product solutions, https://www.hengfengyou.com ；info@hengfengyou.com； ；WhatsApp：+86158 5325 2696（Jack） +86158 5326 5269（Alisa）。
According to the data, China's Transformer exports in 2020 were 2.861 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%. From January to August 2021, China's Transformer exports were 2.18 billion, an increase of 436.74 million compared with the same period in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 25.1%.
Source: public data sorting
According to the data, in 2020, China's Transformer export value was USD 3.264 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%. From January to August 2021, China's Transformer export value was USD 2.267 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.1% compared with the same period in 2020.
Source: public data sorting
In terms of the proportion of global transformer exports, as transformers are technology intensive industries with high market concentration, most of the enterprises producing all kinds of transformers are concentrated in Mexico, Canada, Turkey, Egypt and other countries, and the top five countries account for more than half of the export volume. As China's transformer products account for the second, reaching 10.99%. There are other countries in the top five Mexico, Turkey, Canada and the United States account for 18.59%, 8.38%, 6.86% and 6% respectively. From the perspective of the proportion of China's export of mechanical and electrical products, China's global share of distribution transformers is obviously low, indicating that the export potential of distribution transformers is huge in the future.
Source: public data sorting
四、 Development prospect of transformer industry
Since 2020, with the successive implementation of UHV projects in China, it is expected that China's power transformer market will show a phased new growth trend in the next few years. It is expected that the national transformer output will continue to maintain a growth momentum of 2.5%. By 2026, China's transformer output model will exceed 2 billion kVA.
Source: public data sorting
五、 Development trend of transformer industry
1. Accelerating the upgrading of intelligent transformers to help the development of smart grid
In 2016, China's national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the 13th five year plan for power development (2016-2020), which put forward six basic principles for national power development and pointed out the general direction of China's power system development, namely: overall consideration and coordinated development; Clean, low-carbon and green development; Optimize layout and secure development; Intelligent, efficient and innovative development; Deepening reform, opening up and development; Ensure people's livelihood and shared development. Among them, for the development of China's power grid, the plan proposes to transform and upgrade the distribution network and promote the construction of smart grid. At present, thanks to the in-depth construction of smart grid, the demand for smart transformer is also gradually increasing. The R & D and production of smart transformer will become one of the development trends of transformer industry.
2. Transformer is developing towards safety and green
Different types of new energy have different requirements for transformers. For example, new energy power generation such as wind power and solar energy has the characteristics of intermittence and randomness, and the environment of the power station is relatively bad, which requires transformers to have higher stability and reliability; Nuclear power plants have higher requirements for the safety of transformers to prevent earthquakes and sudden short circuits.
With the continuous development and application of new energy, transformer manufacturers will speed up innovation and strengthen R & D, so as to match the development of new energy industry and products and obtain more market share. Green environmental protection transformer has become the trend of mainstream products.
3. The global overseas market has become the blue ocean market for Chinese transformer enterprises
At present, the internal price competition in China's transformer industry has become white hot. In the conventional transformer market, some small and medium-sized transformer manufacturers even sell products at cost price or loss price to seize market share. A large number of small and medium-sized transformer manufacturers in China have closed down one after another due to the difficulty of capital flow due to the low gross profit margin.
Based on this market situation, some Chinese transformer manufacturers began to shift the market focus to overseas markets. China's China transformer manufacturers one belt, one road, and the other two governments in Southeast Asia and Africa are taking different strategies to deal with the different overseas market characteristics. The profit of such orders is relatively limited due to the low requirements for transformer process standards; ② Take advantage of price, technology and other advantages to win orders for power grid transformation projects in Britain, the United States and other European and American developed countries. Most of the power grids in developed countries in Europe and the United States were formed in the 1950s and have been unable to meet the current power demand, so there is a large demand for the procurement of power grid supporting facilities. The profit level of such orders is high, but the bidding intensity is higher than that of other types of orders.
