The impact of China's overseas power stations on the power situation of their host countries
Writer： Hengfeng you electric Time：2022-06-08 views：times
China has become a major investor and builder in the development of China's home appliance factories. However, little is known about the impact of China's overseas power stations (copss) on developing countries. Here, a new method is proposed to evaluate the impact of cops in 80 host countries. First, they used data provided by the world bank, the International Energy Agency and the World Resources Institute to estimate electricity consumption from 1971 to 2017. Then regression analysis is used to predict the consumption from 2018 to 2025. Finally, three parameters were used to evaluate the impact of cops. The results show that: 1) cops significantly increased the total installed capacity of 35 host countries by > 20%. 2) Cops generates more electricity than the growing demand of 32 host countries. 3) Cops will increase per capita electricity consumption in all 80 host countries. 4) Among the 437 existing cops from 2000 to 2019, renewable energy power plants (including hydropower) account for 51.3% of the total. This proportion has increased significantly after 2013, while renewable power plants will continue to dominate, as China will no longer invest in new coal-fired power plants after 2021.
Electricity is the main driving force of social and economic development. It is the most dynamic and efficient form of energy and is crucial to the growth of all economic sectors (rajkumari 2020). Ensuring access to affordable, reliable and sustainable modern energy services by 2030 is an important part of the United Nations sustainable development goal 7 (sdg7). However, in 2018, nearly 800million people in the world still did not have access to electricity. Developing countries, especially those along the "the Belt and Road", face the problem of relatively underdeveloped power facilities (Morrissey 2017; IEA 2014; valasai et al. 2017; geidco 2018). In addition, in the countries along the the Belt and Road,
(1) the development and utilization of power resources and the level of power consumption for power generation are far lower than those in developed countries.
(2) The level of power infrastructure construction is uneven, especially in South Asia, Southeast Asia, West Asia and North Africa. The power industry and infrastructure (such as power grid) in these areas are underdeveloped, and there are widespread problems such as aging of power equipment, serious overload and management problems.
（3） Countries along the the Belt and Road in Asia and Africa have strong demand for energy projects, power grid interconnection, renewable energy, advanced power technology, etc. However, their current low-level power technology hinders the development of renewable energy systems (sovacool et al.2011). Therefore, the countries along the "the Belt and Road" have an urgent demand for transnational power investment and technical support.
China has the largest power generation capacity in the world. It has rich experience and technology in the construction and operation of hydropower, coal, solar, wind and other types of power stations (Tang et al. 2019). In 2013, China put forward the "the Belt and Road" initiative (China 2015; Aoyama 2017). By the end of January 2020, China had signed agreements with 138 countries (hereinafter referred to as "countries along the the Belt and Road"; Liu 2020). The "the Belt and Road" initiative regards energy projects as an important part of international cooperation (Duan et al. 2018). Since the "the Belt and Road" initiative was put forward, China has invested in and provided construction services for a number of power station projects (i.e. China overseas power stations, copss) in participating countries. The number of cops has grown rapidly and has gradually become an important source of investment and technology for developing countries. According to the published data, China has invested in industrial parks (Li et al. 2019), highways (Jia, Wu, and Niu 2019), railways (Xiao et al. 2019) and other projects abroad. China overseas power projects (Yin et al. 2019; Jiang et al. 2019) contain the largest number of projects related to the the Belt and Road initiative; There are 86 participating countries, including less developed countries such as Guinea, Djibouti, Cambodia and Laos. In addition, China is actively building cross-border power grid interconnection projects and has achieved interconnection with Russia, Mongolia, Kyrgyzstan, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar and other countries (Liu, Yang, and Liu 2018). These cooperation and investment have significantly improved the power and energy situation in the relevant countries.
However, recent statistical data on the impact of global power development and power projects on power supply are incomplete. The per capita electricity consumption data of each country provided by the world bank are only available until 2014. BP provided fragmented statistics for a few countries from 1965 to 2019 (BP 2020). The International Energy Agency (IEA) claims to provide the world's most authoritative and comprehensive global energy data source (IEA 2021). However, IEA only provides national electricity consumption data from 1960 to 2018, and excludes several countries. The number of cops began to increase significantly after 2016. The study of the world bank and BP did not consider the impact of cops on the host country, and many cops were excluded from the IEA database.
Timely and accurate power data, such as investment and power demand, are the basis of power station investment. China's overseas power station is a major investment in its host country, and the exclusion of relevant data will lead to significant analysis uncertainty. However, the recent research on national power consumption and power demand forecasting mainly focuses on the development of complex models. Rivera Gonzalez et al. (2019) used the long-term energy substitution plan (LEAP) system to simulate the power supply and demand of Ecuador from 2040. Perwez et al. Investigated the power supply and demand in Pakistan. (2015) use leap system. In contrast, Zhang et al. (2012) established a complex model to study Japan's power supply and demand under various conditions. Few studies investigated the impact of cooperation and investment related to the "the Belt and Road" initiative on the energy development of the host country. Some researchers analyzed the spatial distribution of various global power investment categories in China as of December 31, 2017 (Li, Gallagher, and mauzerall 2020). Some researchers analyzed the carbon emissions of cops in 15 the Belt and Road initiative countries before June 2019 and discussed their impact on Regional Environmental Sustainability (Tao, Liang and Celia 2020). Due to the lack of other studies, little is known about the impact of cops on its host country.
In order to solve this problem, the objectives of this study are 1) to propose a method for estimating the power consumption of cops host countries from 1971 to 2017 using the global energy data provided by the world bank, the International Energy Agency and the World Resources Institute (WRI), 2) to simulate and analyze the power consumption of these countries from 2018 to 2025, and 3) to propose a method for assessing the impact of cops on these countries.
The innovations and contributions of this study are as follows: 1) it provides a detailed framework for assessing the impact of copss on the power status of the host country, thus making up for the shortcomings of existing studies. 2) The electricity consumption data sets of 80 host countries from 1971 to 2017 are provided, providing useful basic data for relevant research. 3) The power consumption of 80 countries during 2018-2025 is simulated, providing a useful data set for studying their power development. 4) This study has policy significance for Chinese government and enterprises considering investment in overseas power stations.
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