Writer: Hengfeng you electric Time:2023-04-13 views:times
Bloomberg NEF's European electricity analyst Kesavarthiniy Savarimuthu said that no one expects electricity prices to quickly return to normal levels. The evolution of electricity prices this year and next year will depend on several factors, such as coal and natural gas prices, weather, unplanned nuclear power outages, renewable energy generation, and electricity demand.
Moreover, as natural gas reserves in Europe are still very low, do not expect any easing trend in resource competition. Werner Trabesinger, Quantitative Product Manager at Pexapark, a renewable energy consulting firm, said, "If we want to reach a comfortable inventory level by the fourth quarter of 2022, between natural gas consumption and gas storage replenishment, a large amount of liquefied natural gas is needed throughout the summer
Trabesinger said, "This will allow European buyers to compete directly with participants in the Asian LNG market, and in a more tense market, Russia's LNG production has actually been excluded
Savarimutu said, "In order to diversify the sources of natural gas supply and reduce the demand for imported natural gas from Russia, the European Commission has been negotiating." "Increasing imports of liquefied natural gas and other options may generate a premium and have a positive impact on natural gas and electricity prices.
Switching to other fuels such as coal can help solve the tense problem of the natural gas market. However, the same problem also arises here. So far, a large amount of hard coal has come from Russia, and the competition to find alternative coal will become even more intense
According to ING's prediction, the future basic energy prices of European economies such as France, Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands will remain high at around 150 euros/MWh ($163/MWh) throughout 2022, with a slight decrease in summer. However, as winter approaches, they will rise again to around 175 euros/MWh ($190/MWh).
The current situation is very unstable and unpredictable. Compared to the levels of the past decade, the electricity wholesale prices in 2022 are more unstable. Savarimuthu added that uncertain natural gas supply will stimulate more drastic fluctuations in the electricity market.
I think we are entering another very turbulent period, "said Phil Grant, partner in the global power generation division of energy consulting firm Baringa." This has affected people's trading methods and their expectations of risk.
Grant's question is, "As a power generation company, do you want to lock in forward prices now, or are you willing to follow the wave of commercial prices.
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